Economics: Irish unemployment rate forecast to have fallen below 6% in November

Later this morning the Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release the monthly unemployment statistics data for November. There was a seasonally-adjusted total out of work of 131,300 in October, down 1,800 from a revised 133,100 (133,200) in September.

The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for October fell to 6.0% from 6.1% in the two previous months, and significantly less than half the peak of just over 15% hit during the financial crisis. Furthermore, Ireland’s jobless rate is almost three percentage points below the current Eurozone average of 8.8%.

However, the adjusted unemployment rate for persons aged 15-24 years (youth unemployment) remains elevated, although it dropped to 14.0% in October from a revised 14.7% (14.8%) in September. The rate has fallen from 18.3% at the beginning of 2016, but the bottom line is that youth unemployment is still far too high. The Government needs to put particular focus on getting this rate down into single digits as quickly as possible.

As regards the overall jobless rate for 2017, we are forecasting an average figure of 6.3%, down from 7.9% in 2016 and 9.4% in 2015.

For November, an out of work total of 130,000 is anticipated, which would push the unemployment rate down to 5.9%.

Alan McQuaid (05/12/17)
Economist